Last year, the Colorado Rockies were besieged with more injuries that most
clubs ranked in the bottom third of team payroll could overcome. Matt Holliday,
Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Brad Hawpe, Jeff Francis, and Jason Hirsh each spent
time on the disabled list after comprising the nucleus of the surprising 2007
National League Champions. After some of the injury shock subsided, the
Rockies proceeded to go 42-37 over the final three months of the season, just
3.5 games behind the Manny-laden Dodgers in that span. They have only lost two fewer
games than the Dodgers and eight fewer than the Diamondbacks over the past two
years.
This season, the trade of Matt Holliday, acquisition of Jason Marquis, and
maturation of their younger players give the Rockies a depth on both sides of
the ball that they have never before enjoyed in their 16-year history.
That depth will be tested early, as Jeff Francis underwent shoulder surgery and
is out for the year. Less severe injuries to Tulowitzki (back), Hawpe
(hamstring), Garrett Atkins (Hip), and Taylor Buchholz (elbow) could make the
first week of the April rough, but don't threaten the entire season.
Going player-for-player, the Rockies don't appear much improved this season,
but examining them position-by-position reveals that they can expect more from
almost every spot on the field.
Chris Iannetta, for example, becomes the starting catcher this season.
His OPS was more than 200 points higher than ex-platoonmate Yorvit Torrealba's,
and Rockie pitchers appeared to enjoy throwing to Iannetta more (4.61 CERA to
5.13). Torrealba is superior at fielding bunts and throwing out
baserunners, but those aspects of catcher defense are less important when you
play half of your games at Coors Field.
Todd Helton may not be the player he once was, but he certainly isn't the
player he was last season. Playing just half the season, Helton could only
manage a slugging average of .388. His career mark is .574 and he had
never before dipped below .476. His .264 batting average also broke a
streak of ten consecutive .300 or better seasons from this career .328 hitter.
For whatever reason, when Garrett Atkins shifted over to first base to
replace Helton, he could only compile a .722 OPS there. In total, Rockies
first basemen combined for a .751 OPS last year. Why they chose not to
utilize Joe Koshansky, who went .300/31/121 in Triple-A last year, remains a
mystery. The point is, they can do far better this season.
Garrett Atkins
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Second base, on the other hand, figures to be more of a status quo.
Clint Barmes and Jeff Baker will once again split time there, barring a late
spring trade of Baker. Where they
were nearly identical hitters last year, Barmes is clearly the superior fielder,
as Baker is a natural third baseman. But Baker is two years younger and
had a PrOPS of .807 to Barmes' .740, so this figures to be more of an
offense/defense based platoon in '09.
Baker would also be the team's tertiary option at third base behind
Atkins and Ian Stewart. A former 10th overall draft pick, Stewart boasts
an .897 career minor league OPS and managed a .788 mark in the majors at the age
of 23. He could start at the hot corner for many teams, but will be
relegated to super-sub status with Garrett Atkins still in the picture.
Atkins has been plummeting since his fantastic 2006 campaign, and is a candidate
to be traded this summer whether he rediscovers his stroke or not. In any
case, the Rockies have too many options here to not see some production.
There is only one option at shortstop, and that is Troy Tulowitzki.
He batted .327 in 226 at-bats since finally getting healthy at the end of July
(and had hit .166 in the 151 at-bats before that). It's also no
coincidence that Rockies pitchers had a 4.93 ERA before the All-Star break and
4.53 thereafter. He is the biggest key to the Rockies' season. If
healthy, he transforms the Rockies' unspectacular pitching staff into a solid unit and
probably gives the Rockies the fifth-best offensive shortstop in the game.
Indeed, it was Tulowitzki and not Matt Holliday that made the Rockies special
in 2007. Colorado has always been able to plug in mediocre players into
their outfield and turn them into superstars (See Dante Bichette, Ellis
Burks, Jeffrey Hammonds, Todd Hollandsworth, and others). In fact,
Holliday had never hit in the minors (.776 OPS), hasn't hit away from Colorado
(.803 OPS) and is a complete product of Coors Field (1.068 OPS). How Billy Beane was duped into surrendering three good young players for a $13.5 million
burden is beyond me. The move will also subdue Holliday's free agent
contract after this season, as his secret will be out.
| Pos |
'07 |
'08 |
| C |
Iannetta |
Iannetta |
| 1B |
Helton |
Helton |
| 2B |
Barmes/Baker |
Barmes/Baker |
| 3B |
Atkins |
Atkins |
| SS |
Tulowitzki |
Tulowitzki |
| LF |
Holliday |
S Smith |
| CF |
Taveras |
Fowler |
| RF |
Hawpe |
Hawpe |
Carlos Gonzalez, one of the Holliday trio, is going to hit for mammoth power
in Colorado someday. But he is only 23, and the Rockies are incredibly
deep in their outfield, so Gonzalez may not make his impact this year.
Seth Smith (.885 minor league OPS) and Ryan Spilborghs (.840 major league OPS)
figure to be the main combatants for Holliday's left field spot, with Ian
Stewart and the Hollandswortheque Matt Murton also in the mix. Whatever
they come up with isn't going to match Holliday's 34 batting runs from last
season, but it won't be as far off as many people think.
Brad Hawpe looks to take over as the big bopper in the middle of the Rockies'
lineup, but even if they just get a full season of last year's rate stats, it
will be a plus. Hawpe actually turns 30 this year and has suffered both
hand and hamstring injuries this spring, so he is hardly a sure bet. He's
also a disaster with the glove, which makes the club's choice of centerfielder
all the more paramount.
Dexter Fowler would be the correct choice. The 23-year old boasts
a .394 on-base percentage and 101 stolen bases in 334 minor league games, plus a
.431 OBP at Double-A last year. He managed a Plus/Minus rating of +2 in
just 49.2 major league innings, while Ryan Spilborghs, the other option in
center, had a mark of -7 in 130.2 innings last year. Carlos Gonzalez came in at
+6/528.2 with Oakland, but Fowler is needed for his leadoff hitter skills as
well as his defense. Gonzalez is one of few players who could
realistically fall short of Willy Taveras' .299 OBP mark out of the leadoff spot
last year.
(How is it that I can
call Taveras' arrival a key to the Reds'
2009 success and call his departure a key to Colorado's? Well,
not only did the White Sox improve by 16 games from 2004 to 2005 with the
arrival of Taveras-clone Scott Podsednik, but the Brewers also improved by 24 wins.
The Carlos Lee/Scott Podsednik trade was good for both sides. Podsednik
himself is actually fighting for the fifth outfielder's spot this spring, so
they won't miss Taveras at all if he gets it).
The Colorado Rockies' starting pitching without Jeff Francis promises
to be an ugly sight, right? Not so fast, bucko. Francis brought a
4-10 record and 5.01 ERA to the Rockies last year. It won't be so tough
for his replacement to improve upon that. Again, Rockies starters had a 4.53
ERA after the All-Star break last year, and Francis only made seven starts after
the break himself.
So who had stepped up? Mostly, Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez has a rare
combination of strikeout ability (7.8 K/9) and groundball induction (54.4 GB%,
4th-highest in baseball). His control is a concern, but he is basically
like Carlos Zambrano was at the same age, only with better stuff, a fitter
physique, and a far worse
swing than Big Z. Jimenez went 8-3 with a 3.68 ERA in the second half.
One of the three pitchers with a higher GB% than Jimenez last year was
teammate Aaron Cook. Cook's career strikeout totals are laughable, but he
has managed an ERA+ of 116 for three straight seasons and has fanned 17 in 19
innings so far this spring. With a double play combo of Tulowitzki and
Barmes when Jimenez and Cook are starting, the Rockies have the most underrated
1-2 punch in the league.
| Pos |
'07 |
'08 |
| SP |
Cook |
Cook |
| SP |
Jimenez |
Jimenez |
| SP |
Francis |
Marquis |
| SP |
de la Rosa |
de la Rosa |
| SP |
Reynolds/Livo |
Smith/Hirsh |
| SP |
Redman/Rusch |
Fogg/Morales |
| CL |
Fuentes |
Street |
| RP |
Corpas |
Corpas |
| RP |
Buchholz |
Buchholz |
| RP |
Grilli |
Grilli |
| RP |
Herges |
Embree |
| RP |
Speier |
Speier |
| RP |
Vizcaino |
Rusch |
After that, it gets a little dicey. #3 starter Jason Marquis fancies
himself a sinkerball pitcher as well, but hasn't had a GB% over 50% since 2005.
Marquis has experimented with pitching from a new spot on the rubber this
spring, and the results have been disastrous. Worst-case scenario, Marquis
eats innings, saves the bullpen, and is still more effective than the fifth
starters on last year's squad. Best-case scenario, he is the next Josh Fogg: a guy who should get drilled in Colorado but instead has some
surprise success (Fogg,
incidentally, is back in camp).
As a change of pace from all of these groundball artists, Jorge de la Rosa is
pure power, having averaged just under a strikeout per inning last season.
He also has control issues, which is why he's the #4 starter. For even
more contrast, Greg Smith is a finesse flyball pitcher. That could mean
trouble in Coors. However, Smith started 13 games for the Lancaster
Jethawks in 2006. The jet stream in their home ballpark makes Coors seem
like a pitcher's paradise, yet Smith managed a 9-0 record and 1.64 ERA there.
Perhaps the fact that 13.9% of his 2008 flyballs were weak infield pops explains
that. He also has a .913 minor league OPS in limited action, and could be
a serious offensive threat in that ballpark.
Rockies Fun Fact
Greg Reynolds was second on the 2008 Rockies with 14
HR allowed despite only tossing 62 innings. |
Greg Reynolds and Franklin Morales are both just 23-years old. They
were rushed to the majors and stunk up the place last year, but still have
promise. Do not forget that Jason Hirsch was an ace in the making prior to
his injury-plagued 2008 season. This trio of high upside is great to have
on hand, but it's equally great that the team is not relying upon any of them to
contribute.
The loss of Brian Fuentes at the back end of the bullpen is as great a
loss as Matt Holliday was. Replacing him is great-ERA,
poor-save-percentage king Huston Street. Street is just 25, so he could
still figure out the Heimlich maneuver and stop himself from choking when it
counts. He could also implode in Coors Field. Backing him up is the
inconsistent Manny Corpas, a man who does not strike out enough batters to
close games.
Jason Grilli and Taylor Buchholz both somehow had earned run averages under
3.00 for Colorado last year. Grilli is obviously a fraud, but Buchholz
actually owns a career relief ERA of 2.42 in 122.2 innings thanks to his hard
fastball/slow curveball combo. Buchholz could miss most of April with an
elbow injury, however. Alan Embree, Ryan Speier, and Glendon Rusch round
out this unimpressive depth chart; at least Embree and Rusch give them a
left-handed presence out of the pen this year. The team is high on 100-mph
Juan Morillo, but his walk totals suggest that he is high himself whilst pitching.
Final Word
Apart from the questionable bullpen, these Rockies are ready to compete now
under nearly any contingency. If Garrett Atkins or Jeff Baker gets traded,
it just means more playing time for Ian Stewart. If Seth Smith and Ryan Spilborghs get hurt, Matt Murton and Scott Podsednik could form a serviceable
left field platoon. If Jason Marquis or Greg Smith's propensity to put
the ball in play gets them into trouble at Coors, perhaps Hirsh, Morales, or
Reynolds is ready to step in and succeed. About the only incident these
Rockies could not handle is another serious injury to Tulowitzki or the decision
to start a corner outfielder like Spilborghs in centerfield.
And even if one of those things were to transpire, the NL West is so suspect
that the Rockies might still be in the thick of a three-team heat between
themselves, the Dodgers, and the Diamondbacks.