We know that the Diamondbacks are better built for long-term success, but
which club has the edge for 2007? We go position-by-position to make that
determination.
Catcher
Giants - Bengie Molina
Diamondbacks
- Miguel Montero, Chris Snyder
Bengie Molina took a small step backwards last year on offense, and jumped
back fifty yards on defense. He was among the slowest players in baseball
when he was in his mid-20's. Now 32, the eldest Molina brother appears to
be on a precipitous decline, although he was arguably the best all-around
catcher in baseball just two years ago.
The opposite phenomenon is happening in Arizona. The two up-and-coming
catchers should be as effective offensively as Molina when used in a platoon
system. They'll do a better job throwing out basestealers, but lack
Molina's vast experience in calling games.
Edge: Even
First Base
Giants - Rich Aurilia, Ryan Klesko
Diamondbacks
- Conor Jackson
Klesko and Aurilia could also provide an effective platoon if they both
return to their previous heights. Aurilia's numbers last season were
helped by his home ballpark, and Klesko hasn't been both healthy and productive
since 2004.
The Diamondbacks can expect big things from Conor Jackson, who quietly had a
fantastic second half to 2006.
Edge: Diamondbacks
Second Base
Giants - Ray Durham
Diamondbacks
- Orlando Hudson
Both of these second basemen ostensibly had career years at the plate in
2006. O-Dog's spike is more likely to stay raised due to his age.
Additionally, Durham's durability has been a big question mark since he moved to
the senior circuit.
The defensive play of these two isn't close. Hudson ranks among the best in
the game at second, whereas Durham has average range and serious problems
turning the double play.
Edge: Diamondbacks
Third Base
Giants - Pedro Feliz
Diamondbacks
- Chad Tracy
Pedro Feliz is an asset on defense, but such an offensive liability at the
hot corner that it almost doesn't matter. His OBP ranks among the worst in
baseball year after year alongside that of utility infielders and backup
catchers.
Tracy has the opposite problem, being stronger on offense than on defense.
Even though he struck out too often last year, he is five years younger than
Feliz, and therefore much more likely to have a bounce-back season.
Offense is more important than defense at third base.
Edge: Diamondbacks
Shortstop
Giants - Omar Vizquel
Diamondbacks
- Stephen Drew
Every year people wonder whether Vizquel will finally break down, and every
year he silences his critics. There's no way he deserved his last two Gold
Glove Awards over Adam Everett, but he is still a very good fielder nonetheless.
Drew is merely solid on defense, and appears due for a serious regression on
offense. He'll out-slug Omar, but the veteran can still do just about
everything else better than the promising youngster.
Edge: Giants
Utility
Giants - Kevin Frandsen
Diamondbacks
- Alberto Callaspo
Both of these players are somewhat overlooked, partially due to their not
having set positions, no doubt. Each of them hustles, does the little
things well, and bears a positive attitude on the field. Callaspo had a
much better regular season last year, but Frandsen dominated in Winter Ball.
Edge: Even
Outfield
Giants - Barry Bonds, Dave Roberts, Randy Winn
Diamondbacks - Eric Byrnes, Carlos Quentin, Chris Young
Roberts provides the Giants with a much better leadoff option than Randy Winn
did last year, even though he'll never match last season's numbers.
Obviously, the real key is Bonds' health; if he can match his playing time from
last year, the Giants' offense should be okay.
The Diamondbacks are going to get a big year from Quentin, and good power and
speed numbers at least from the rest of their outfield. They also trump
the Giants on defense. Both clubs have decent outfield reserves, but could
have to lean on them a bit too heavily with starters that aren't expected to
play more than 150 games each.
Edge: Diamondbacks
Top of the Rotation
Giants - Barry Zito, Matt Cain, Noah Lowry, Matt Morris
Diamondbacks - Brandon Webb, Randy Johnson, Livan Hernandez, Doug Davis
These are more inning-eater-type pitchers than the dominant type. The
exceptions being Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson, assuming that the Big Unit
recovers from his back surgery. Matt Cain cannot be considered in that
class until he can prove that he can command all of his pitches more
consistently.
The Giants also have two pitchers now in Morris and Zito who rely heavily on
big, looping breaking balls. When they run into a good curveball hitting
team, they're going to get into a lot of trouble.
Edge: Diamondbacks
Bottom of the Rotation
Giants - Russ Ortiz, Brad Hennessey, Tim Lincecum
Diamondbacks - Enrique Gonzalez, Dustin Nippert, Micah Owings
The fifth starter's spot could go a long way towards determining the fate of
the 2007 Giants. If Russ Ortiz really makes more than a dozen starts for
this team, Diamondbacks fans know that the Giants have no shot at a winning
record. On the other hand, if Tim Lincecum is really as polished as
everyone thinks, he could have a similar impact to Rich Harden and Mark Prior,
who both shot through the minor leagues at a similar rate. One needs only
look at the injury histories of those two pitchers to know whether bringing
Lincecum up so soon is a good idea in the long run, however.
The Diamondbacks' situation is much more stable. They have at least
a half dozen prospects that may be ready to contribute as major league starters.
None of them is likely to have the Earth-shattering impact this year that Lincecum might have, but none of them poses as big of a risk as Ortiz does.
Moreover, if one of them does falter, or if there's an injury to the front four,
the Diamondbacks are simply better prepared to fill the gaps with competent
pitchers.
Edge: Diamondbacks
Bullpen
Giants - Armando
Benitez, Kevin Correia, Steve Kline, Vinny Chulk, Brian Wilson
Diamondbacks
- Valverde, Jorge Julio, Juan Cruz, Tony Pena, Doug Slaten
The Giants' bullpen is in disarray. Armando Benitez was inconsistent
when he was healthy. Now he's basically a coin toss.
Problematically, they don't have a real insurance policy if he is either injured
or ineffective. They do have one of the best lefty specialists around inn
Steve Kline.
Valverde and Julio are hardly closers to set your watch to, but each can ride
periods of dominance, and Bob Melvin may be able to play the hot hand often
enough to get by. Tony Pena is a future closer with a killer fastball, but
will probably just be a solid setup guy this year. Doug Slaten may be
joined by potential starters Evan MacLane and Dana Eveland as solid left-handed
options.
Edge: Diamondbacks
Final Word
For the Giants to finish with a record anywhere near as good as Arizona's, a
lot is going to have to go right. We're talking Bonds playing in 150 games, Lincecum breaking camp as the #5 starter, and Barry Zito returning to his 2003
form. This club was fortunate last year to get as much as they did from a
group of aging veterans, and it only got them 76 wins.
The Diamondbacks are both younger and deeper. They had a myriad of
off-the-field problems and lacked a team identity. They also managed 76
wins despite the chaos.
Look for fortunes to even out and for results to become more disparate.
Edge: Diamondbacks
Next Week: Diamondbacks vs. Rockies