ADDITIONS:
RF Sammy Sosa (acquired in trade with Chicago Cubs), RHP Steve Reed (free
agency), LHP Steve Kline (free agency), James Baldwin (free agency), Jay Witasick (free agency), INF Enrique Wilson (free agency), INF Chris Stynes (free
agency), SS Chris Gomez (acquired in trade with Philadelphia Phillies), OF Midre Cummings (free agency)
LOSSES:
P Luke Haggerty (traded to Marlins), 2B/OF Jerry Hairston Jr. (traded to
Chicago Cubs), LHP Omar Daal, LHP Buddy Groom, OF/DH/1B David Segui, OF Marty Cordova
PROJECTED LINEUP:
1: 2B Brian Roberts
2: 3B Melvin Mora
3: SS Miguel Tejada
4: DH Raphael Palmeiro
5: RF Sammy Sosa
6: C Javy Lopez
7: LF Larry Bigbie
8: 1B Jay Gibbons
9: CF Luis Matos
If chicks really do dig the long ball than expect the Ballpark at Camden
Yards to be packed with females. In this lineup the 2 through 7 spots
should all hit 20+ homers, and with a full season's worth of at bats Jay Gibbons
could join that club in the eight hole. Will anybody be on base is the
question of the moment.
Figure Roberts and Matos to compete for the leadoff spot, though until Matos
figures out how to make more contact (he struck out 60 times in 330 at bats and
posted a dismal .275 On Base Percentage) it is Roberts' job to lose. None
the less, there is an impressive amount of thunder in the middle of the order,
made even more impressive by the balance of left and right handed
hitters.
Beyond who will hit leadoff for the O's, the biggest lineup question mark is
if and where David Newhan will see time. A versatile player, Newhan might
slide into the role Mora played a few years ago, becoming Baltimore's super-sub
and seeing time at second, third, left field, right field, and even potentially
first base, as injuries and days off dictate. If he continues to produce
the way he did last season (.311/8/54 in 95 games after being acquired from the
Texas Rangers organization) he could find himself a regular in the starting
lineup by the end of May. The most likely scenario has Matos struggling,
Larry Bigbie moving into center field and Newhan claiming left as his own.
BENCH:
C Geronimo Gil
2B/3B/OF David Newhan
SS Chris Gomez
INF Enrique Wilson
OF/DH BJ Surhoff
OF Midre Cummings
Outside of Newhan the bench doesn't scare anyone, but versatile former Yankee
Wilson can play second, short, and third, giving the O's a solid veteran backup,
and Cummings has great speed and a solid arm, giving the O's a late inning
defensive replacement. While Surhoff is aging, in limited duty his smart
play, good contact, and clutch power should make him the first bat off the bench
for late inning pinch hitting duty and a solid veteran backup for Sosa (who has
missed time in each of the last two seasons because of injury) in right.
ROTATION:
RHP Sidney Ponson
RHP Rodrigo Lopez
LHP Erik Bedard
RHP Daniel Cabrera
LHP Bruce Chen
The enigma that is Sidney Ponson still leads the rotation, and Oriole fans
have no choice but to continue to hope this is the year he finally
figures it out. He's been on the cusp of breaking out for so long he's now
on the cusp of being a full fledged bust for the Orioles. He is entering
the second year of a three year, $22.5 million dollar deal with the Orioles, and
may start the season late after allegedly punching a judge in the face this
offseason in his native Aruba.
After Ponson things get murky, and don't figure to clear up any time
soon. Rodrigo Lopez is currently slotted as the #2 and after an 11-7
season with a 3.95 ERA in 23 starts seems to be the only other lock to make the
rotation besides Ponson.
The rest of the cast will be determined by no less than seven
candidates.
Erik Bedard was less than overwhelming last year, going 6-10 and completely
falling apart the second half of the season, going 3-8 in his last 11
decisions.
Eric DuBose faltered after starting well, and then revealed he had bone chips
in his pitching elbow, resulting in surgery. Kurt Ainsworth joined DuBose
on the operating table, and though Ainsworth is a former #1 pick he has to prove
he can throw without his arm falling off before he can be placed in the starting
rotation.
Bruce Chen is on his ninth organization in seven Major League seasons, and
was officially removed from 'Next Big Thing' status during the 2000
season. He will make the club, and make appearances as a starter, but will
likely spend the majority of the season in the bullpen.
At 6'7" and just 23 years old Daniel Cabrera has a high ceiling, that
he's no where near reaching, but the Orioles hope this season might be his
breakout year and he might claim the #3 spot in the rotation by the end of the
year. To do that he will absolutely have to improve on his 89 walks in
147.2 innings.
Matt Riley is a talented left hander who averaged less than five innings per
start. At 26 years old this will be Riley's best shot yet to make a mark,
and sources say his offseason workouts have been stellar. Of all the young
pitchers the Orioles will be working with, and there are many of them, Riley is
the one most have tabbed as the potential breakout star in the Orioles rotation.
The two wild cards come with great arms and incredible potential. John
Maine was named the #6 prospect in the Orioles organization by Baseball
America and has four legitimate pitches in his bag. He was moved to
Triple-A after just a handful of starts at Double-A last year and posted an
under 3.00 ERA after a couple of rocky starts after the promotion. Hayden
Penn has yet to drink a beer legally, yet the combination of great control, a
plus plus changeup, and pitching savvy well beyond his 20 years have led some to
speculate that he might get his first big league start before he can celebrate
with that beer. He'll start the season in Double-A, but it could be a
matter of weeks before his inserts himself in the rotation.
BULLPEN:
Closer: Jorge Julio/BJ Ryan
LH Set Up: Steve Kline
RH Set Up: Steve Reed
LH MR: John Parrish
RH MR: Todd Williams/Eddy Rodriguez/David Borkowski
For the Orioles the biggest conundrum is who will start, but almost as big is
who will finish. The nice thing for the Orioles is that unlike the
starting rotation, where the O's are thin, the closer's spot is
overstaffed. Jorge Julio has been the closer in Baltimore the last two
years, and while not being dominant, he's certainly serviceable, with a strong
arm and closer's mentality. None the less after a less than brilliant '04
the club gave Ryan a shot during the last two weeks, and he performed
well. The Orioles will reportedly wait until Spring Training to make a
final decision, but Julio's name has been mentioned often in trade talks, most
recently with the Chicago Cubs during the negotiations in the Sosa deal, and he
could be moved at any moment, leaving the job for Ryan.
The Orioles did acquire pitching in the offseason, in the form of lefty set
up specialist Steve Kline and righty veteran Steve Reed. The two should
form one of the better eighth inning duos in the league, and the bullpen wealth
doesn't stop there. Righty Todd Williams was fantastic last season going
2-0 with an under 3.00 ERA, and lefty John Parrish was equally impressive,
striking out nearly eight hitters per nine innings during his 55
appearances. Those two will handle the majority of the middle relief
duties, with Eddy Rodriguez, David Borkowski, and at least one, possibly two, of
the pitchers competing for a starting rotation spot filling out the rest of the
bullpen, which should be a strength of the Orioles in 2005.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK:
It would be easy to say the starting rotation as a whole, but quietly the
Orioles are saying Ponson is their real concern. He is reportedly trimmer
than he has reported to Spring Training in the past, and has been working on a
changeup to help combat left handed hitters. If Ponson can throw 200+
innings and keep his ERA in the general neighborhood of 4.00 the improved
offense should get him 15 wins, and give the Orioles at least one veteran
pitcher they are comfortable throwing in big games against the Red Sox and
Yankees.
BREAKOUT PLAYER:
Cabrera and Riley are on equal footing here. Cabrera is raw but has
startling tools, and Riley could develop into a true front of the line lefty
starter. If either develops into the kind of starter the Orioles believe
they could be, this team could jump from competing for fourth in the AL East to
becoming a spoiler that very well might knock either the Red Sox or the Yankees
out of the Wild Card.
PROJECTION:
The Orioles were supposed to go out and get one or maybe even two starters at
the free agent table. Carl Pavano passed, Derek Lowe went to the Dodgers,
and everyone else ran for the hills. The Orioles have quite a few
promising arms in the system, but it seems unlikely that they will be ready for
the big leagues, not to mention ready to go into the Bronx, or Fenway, and keep
the Orioles in a game. The offense should be potent, and the Orioles
should play a lot of 11-8 games, problem is, they seem likely to lose more of
those than they will win. Expect a fourth place finish, with the potential
to move up to third if Cabrera and/or Riley comes on strong.